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Exact-Gaussian Diagnostics

Status - developer evidence

This page tracks exact-Gaussian diagnostic lanes that are useful for source-code review and future parity work. It is not a public optimizer promotion, not an R bridge promotion, and not interval-coverage evidence.

Current Row-Contract Donor

The location-only phylogenetic mean lane lives in src/location_only.jl. Its current row contract is guarded by test/test_location_only_reml_mme.jl and the validation artifacts under docs/dev-log/validation-status/.

RouteEstimator statusDiagnostic rowsBoundary
gaussian_loconly_phylo_remlExact-Gaussian location-only REML diagnosticscomparator plan, external package/version probe, derivative finite-difference status, guarded line-search status, boundary grid, profile-axis sanity, variance-component point statusInternal developer evidence only: no q4 claim, no non-Gaussian claim, no R bridge promotion, no interval coverage claim, and ai_reml_ready = false.

Second Sparse Candidate

The two-structured Gaussian sparse route lives in src/gaussian_structured.jl and is guarded by test/test_two_structured_gaussian_sparse.jl. It fits Gaussian mean models with two structured random-effect terms by integrating the augmented latent vector with sparse linear algebra.

text
y = X beta + Z1 a1 + Z2 a2 + epsilon
a1 ~ N(0, sigma1^2 C1)
a2 ~ N(0, sigma2^2 C2)
epsilon ~ N(0, sigma^2 I)

The sparse path uses one sparse Cholesky of

text
H = blockdiag(sigma1^-2 C1^-1, sigma2^-2 C2^-1) + Z'Z / sigma^2

and reads variance-component gradient terms from Takahashi selected-inverse entries. This makes it a plausible candidate for later row-shaped diagnostics. At this stage it remains a source-map candidate for the Gaussian ML route, not a REML or AI-REML claim.

Evidence Gates

ArtifactWhat It SupportsWhat It Does Not Support
docs/dev-log/scout/2026-06-22-exact-gaussian-structured-source-map.mdSource map from the current REML diagnostic donor to the two-structured Gaussian sparse candidate.Any new estimator, bridge, coverage, q4, or non-Gaussian claim.
test/test_two_structured_gaussian_sparse.jlDense/sparse agreement, gradient sanity, recovery smoke, and public algorithm = :sparse routing for the two-structured Gaussian ML route.REML/AI-REML status or interval calibration.
test/test_location_only_reml_mme.jlExact-Gaussian location-only REML diagnostic row contracts.q4 Patterson-Thompson REML, non-Gaussian Laplace routes, or R bridge parity.

Claim Boundaries

  • REML and AI-REML wording here is exact-Gaussian only.

  • q4 Patterson-Thompson REML is not HSquared AI-REML.

  • Non-Gaussian Laplace routes keep their own method names.

  • R bridge support needs row-specific native R, direct DRM.jl, and R-via-Julia evidence before promotion.

  • Profile-axis diagnostics are not interval coverage.

  • No Ayumi-facing reply or draft is changed by these diagnostics.